(no subject)

[tinyjo]

I wish I was French sometimes. At least their government isn't totally subservient to the Americans all the time. I find it hard to believe that we're actually going to have a war in some ways, not least because I'm so used to the government folding under the tiniest bit of pressure from public opinion. It's so strange to see Tony Blair stick to his guns in the face of complete disagreement from the country, the party, even his MP's, normally so well trained. And I suppose that in the end, I have faith in the idea that getting re-elected is still more important to them than anything and this is one issue I can imagine they could lose the election on. If they go in without a second resolution we could even see enough defections to the Lib-Dems to shift the balance of power in the commons, perhaps not enough to change the government, but enough to cut down on the majority. I suppose that's a certain amount of wishful thinking but it's also pretty pragmatic. There's a lot of votes in this, and no MP can sit quietly by, especially in those marginal Middle England seats, and see those slip away from him. Maybe self-interest will save us after all, even if it doesn't save the Iraqis.

Comments

Re: Two things...

[truecatachresis.livejournal.com]

I'm not disagreeing with you about the primary reasons Dubya is interested in the war; (although I think the oil issue is less important than you might think. I don't recall the figures, but IIRC the USA does not get very much of its own oil from that region. Europe is more heavily dependent on the Middle East for oil. And a war in the region is only going to make the oil more expensive.) he is most interested in the political support winning a war gets him in the States, I think.

I don't know that the poll is necessarily very useful. For one thing, while if asked for a poll whether or not we should fight they might answer no, if it actually happens many of those people really don't care enough about that issue to change their vote. Also, I suspect the poll may be biased more towards people who do care enough about the issue in the first place to bother answering it. And as such would be tilted towards the negative.

My own opinion is that we would be committing war crimes if we invaded without UN sanction; Iraq has done nothing directly to us, and an invasion for no slight, with no published evidence of breaking any international laws is, as far as I can see, wrong. (Although, IANAIL.)