Tim Harford ([syndicated profile] tim_harford_feed) wrote2025-07-11 05:01 am

Cautionary Tales – “I get in trouble when I say things like this”… Michael Lewis on Sam Bankman-Frie

Posted by Tim Harford

Acclaimed author Michael Lewis discusses his time with Sam Bankman-Fried and why he thinks both high finance and Effective Altruism shaped the ‘Crypto King’s’ worldview, ultimately landing him in jail. Plus, we hear about the people fighting terrorism, cave-ins and brain-eating amoeba from Michael’s new book Who Is Government?.

Michael Lewis’s book about Sam Bankman-Fried is Going Infinite: The Rise and Fall of a New Tycoon.

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Tim Harford ([syndicated profile] tim_harford_feed) wrote2025-07-10 04:52 pm

Taco, the trade that ate itself

Posted by Tim Harford

Does he always chicken out, or doesn’t he? Like all loyal listeners to the FT’s Unhedged podcast, I’ve been telling my friends about Rob Armstrong’s perfect new acronym: Taco — Trump Always Chickens Out. From this observation, the Taco trade logically follows: whenever President Trump announces something that causes markets to swoon, buy during the fainting spell and wait for the clucking sound to emerge from the White House. Deservedly, the Taco trade has gone viral.

It all makes sense until you start to pull on the loose end of the logical thread. Why did Trump chicken out? Because the markets panicked when he announced a dramatic act of self-harm. But the fact that the markets were so alarmed in early April suggests that they weren’t really swallowing the Taco hypothesis.

Then came May; US equity markets had a great month despite the prospect of Trump’s 90-day “pause” expiring soon, the random imposition of further tariffs and the unsettling new prospect that Congress planned to give the administration powers to levy taxes on selected foreign investors at will. Perhaps the markets had finally digested the truth about Taco?

Which raises the possibility that the Taco trade will eat itself. (We are indebted to the FT’s markets guru Katie Martin for that phrase.) The markets could become overconfident, taking Trump neither literally nor seriously. The next time he announces that he is invading Switzerland, imposing tariffs on all exports from New York State or deporting to Peru every pygmy hippo he can find, traders and analysts will shrug, send each other Taco memes and ignore him.

Then the next step: the horrifying realisation that since the market has not blinked, Trump is not actually planning to chicken out. The step after that? The market will belatedly plunge, Trump will belatedly chicken out and the pygmy hippos will be saved — until the next time.

If that isn’t enough to send you into a spin, consider this: perhaps Trump’s pride will be so wounded by all the Taco talk that he will stop chickening out altogether.

This spiralling chain reaction may all seem like an Escher fever-dream, but the underlying point is simple and could come from a Greek tragedy: when you try to predict the future, you risk changing it. Some prophecies are self-fulfilling. Some prophecies are self-defeating. Any prophecy worthy of the name is going to interact with itself, one way or another.

This effect is at work in any financial market, in which the more efficient the market is at spotting overpriced assets to sell and underpriced assets to buy, the fewer mispriced assets there will be. Everyone who successfully spots a bargain contributes to that bargain vanishing. The same dynamic is at play any time you try to decide which line to join at a supermarket or at passport control: once everyone has rushed to join the shortest line, it is no longer the shortest.

But there are many other ways in which people change the future by trying to predict it. One notorious example from the history of computing is the “Osborne Effect”, named, perhaps unfairly, after the shortlived Osborne Computer Corporation. In the early 1980s, Osborne made an early and enormously covetable portable computer, but went bankrupt after prematurely announcing that new and better models were on the horizon. Demand for Osborne’s inventory is said to have collapsed because customers were waiting for the improved product to arrive.

Whether or not that was really Osborne Computer’s problem is something we can leave to the business historians. The point is that credible pre-announcements can make or break the current offering, depending on whether the prospect on the horizon is a substitute for what is now on sale (as with Osborne) or a complement for the current product, such as games for a console.

An even more infamous example is the Y2K affair. As the year 2000 approached, people started to worry about the risk of computers malfunctioning because old software used only two digits to record dates, and would confuse the year 2000 with the year 1900.

There were indeed some system failures. Some were minor but eye-catching, such as the failure of radiation monitoring systems at two Japanese nuclear power stations. Others were tragic, such as women in Sheffield terminating pregnancies after wrongly being told their babies were at high risk of Down’s syndrome. True to the theme of this column, other problems were caused not by the Y2K date change itself, but by botched software updates aimed at preventing trouble.

It is fair to say that there were no catastrophes as a result of the Y2K issue, which led some commentators to declare that the whole thing had been a foolish scare story designed to sell newspapers and expensive IT consulting contracts. Others argued that the absence of major disruption should be viewed as a triumph of preventive prophecy.

This is the preparedness paradox: the better you prepare for a problem, the more it seems that you were being silly because there was never a serious problem in the first place. From pandemic surveillance to nuclear deterrence, it can be hard to distinguish a far-sighted policy from a foolish waste.

Consider vaccination. Successful vaccination campaigns make common illnesses seem rare — giving credence to those who suggest vaccination is a needless risk. Global agreements to restrict CFC gases have helped the ozone hole to heal — and now, of course, there are people on social media asking why everyone lost their minds about an environmental problem that was so fleeting. While we’re on the subject, why do they waste all that money having guards at Fort Knox anyway? Everyone knows that place has never been robbed.

Even setting aside bad logic and bad faith, it is not easy to think clearly about the future. Serious forecasts, the ones that aim to be more than snack food for the mind, aim to change our understanding and therefore our actions. If they change our actions, they are changing the very future they hope to describe.

Written for and first published in the Financial Times on 13 June 2025.

Loyal readers might enjoy How To Make The World Add Up.

“Nobody makes the statistics of everyday life more fascinating and enjoyable than Tim Harford.”- Bill Bryson

“This entertaining, engrossing book about the power of numbers, logic and genuine curiosity”- Maria Konnikova

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The Pervocracy ([syndicated profile] pervocracy_feed) wrote2025-07-08 10:48 pm

How to win a debate against a transphobe.

Posted by Cliff Pervocracy

As a former competitive debater and a veteran of many, many Internet debates, I want to share some of my favorite clever comebacks against transphobic talking points. These are just suggestions, of course; feel free to rephrase them in your own words.


They say: “What is a woman?”
Best response: Give a trans woman that makeup you bought and never used. Teach her how to use it if she doesn’t know. Tell her she looks beautiful. Mean it.

They say: “Aren’t you just reinforcing gender stereotypes?”
Best response: Buy gender-affirming clothing and hygiene products for trans people in need via the Transhealth wish list. (Or you can send them items directly, but ask first, they have limited storage space.)

They say: “Why are you letting children make irreversible decisions that they’ll regret later?”
Best response: Send a message of hope and affirmation to trans youth via the Southern Equality Project.

They say: “God made you to be a man/woman.”
Best response: Participate in an online or in-person support group hosted by Keshet (Jewish) or MASGD (Muslim) or Transmission Ministry Collective (Christian) or IQBC (Buddhist).

They say: “LGB people will lose all the progress they made if they don’t drop the T.”
Best response: Organize a day in the park or a movie night with your gay, bi, trans, and otherwise queer friends. Bring snacks.

They say: “There’s only two genders. It’s science.”
Best response: Enroll in the PRIDE study, the first long-term national health study of LGBTQIA+ people. It’s produced a huge amount of science supporting LGBTQIA+ health, and guidelines for healthcare providers to better care for us. They take privacy seriously and have a Certificate of Confidentiality and an organizational commitment to shield their data from legal demands, including from the federal government.

They say: “You’re mentally ill.”
Best response: “If you ever need to talk about serious stuff or just vent, I’m here and I’ll listen and I won’t judge,” to a trans friend who’s not quite close enough to know if that’s something they could ask of you.

They say: “This new social media trend has gotten out of hand.”
Best response: Browse the Digital Transgender Archive and educate yourself about the long and rich history of gender diversity.

They say: “Thank God Trump is finally doing something about this madness.”
Best response: Get into local politics. I mean yeah, sure, call your reps if there’s a chance in hell of them listening, but the places you really can make yourself heard are the town hall, the school board session, the city council meeting. Here’s some important advice on how to more effectively advocate for trans people in these settings.

They say: “It’s not surgery, it’s mutilation.”
Best response: “Do you need a ride home from the hospital? I can come check on you and bring you meals while you’re recovering,” to a trans person planning surgery.

They say: “I hate trans people.”
Best response: “I respect and support trans people.” Not to them. To everyone else. To your coworkers and your classmates and your neighbors and your friends and your Internet friends and anyone you can safely say it to.

They say: “You’re ruining your body.”
Best response: Log off for the night, eat, drink, stretch, read a chapter you love in a book you love, and go to bed on time for once. Caring for the community includes caring for yourself.


tweets from @weedcatholic: "if u r transgender u have to live. if u accomplish something else then good. if u accomplish nothing else then good. but u have to live. despite what u might say, if you're transgender it's because u want to live"


you say: hey cliff this post sure sounds all wise and noble but I caught you yelling “well it’s not my problem you go poopie in your pants if everyone on earth doesn’t perform pink and blue at your fucking pleasure, poopiepants” at some rando republican on another site like twenty minutes ago
my response: personal growth is a process

Tim Harford ([syndicated profile] tim_harford_feed) wrote2025-07-08 05:00 am

Cautionary Tales – The Angels, The Stones, and The Dead

Posted by Tim Harford

This episode is released exclusively on Pushkin+. Episodes are released on the main feed each Friday.

In the final days of the Sixties, The Rolling Stones join forces with other rock legends to plan a free concert at Altamont that will rival Woodstock.The “bad boys of rock” don’t have the best relationship with the police, so they think of another option for security: The Hells Angels. They’re both anti-establishment, they’re both counterculture: what could possibly go wrong? 

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Further reading

Altamont: The Rolling Stones, the Hells Angels, and the Inside Story of Rock’s Darkest Day by Joel Selvin

LIFE Rides With Hells Angels, 1965

A Long Strange Trip, Dennis McNally

Hell’s Angels, Hunter s Thompson

Keith Richards on Keith Richards, ed Sean Egan

Keith Richards, Victor Bockris 

Life, Keith Richards 

Mick Jagger, Philip Norman

Stone Alone, Bill Wyman

Old Gods Almost Dead, Stephen Davis

Don’t look back: The story of Altamont, the rock festival that the ’60s wants to forget. Geoff Edgers, Washington Post 21 Nov, 2019

The Rolling Stones Disaster at Altamont: Let It Bleed. Rolling Stone January 21, 1970

The long strange saga of the Grateful Dead and the Hells Angels. SF Gate, June 2022. 

Tappin, B., Van Der Leer, L., & McKay, R. (2017). The heart trumps the head: Desirability bias in political belief revision. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General146(8), 1143-1149. https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0000298

Tim Harford ([syndicated profile] tim_harford_feed) wrote2025-07-04 05:01 am

Cautionary Tales – Grand Theft Automated: How To Save A Trillion Lives

Posted by Tim Harford

A radical thought experiment transforms the lives of a new breed of philanthropists, as they follow the logic of altruism to extraordinary lengths. The most famous convert to the Effective Altruism movement, Sam Bankman-Fried, is either a humanitarian hero, or a con artist at an astonishing scale, or most bafflingly, both.   

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Further reading

The definitive account of Sam Bankman-Fried’s astonishing career arc is Michael Lewis’s book Going Infinite: The Rise and Fall of a New Tycoon. This episode also relied on sources including Gideon Lewis-Kraus’s profile of Will MacAskill in The New Yorker, The Reluctant Prophet of Effective Altruism, and contemporary reporting in outlets including Rolling StoneVox, the BBC and CNBC. Will MacAskill’s book is called What We Owe The Future, and Peter Singer’s essay is Famine, Affluence and Morality

Tim Harford ([syndicated profile] tim_harford_feed) wrote2025-07-03 05:28 pm

Why is modern commerce corrosive?

Posted by Tim Harford

You’re not imagining it. There is something shallow about modern life — a sense that traditional virtues, from craftsmanship to professionalism to loyalty, have somehow been hollowed out. Don’t get me wrong: I love living in the 21st century and believe that the world is a far better place in 2025 than it was in, say, 1975.

Still, there is something amiss. You can see it in long-term trends such as the demise of communities built around fishing, mining or manufacture, and in more recent calamities such as the internet’s descent into a hellscape of fraud, manufactured anxiety and AI slop. You can see it in serious matters such as the sewage flowing into the Thames, the decay of high streets or the precarity of many modern jobs. You can see it in more trivial worries such as the way each new casual dining concept so quickly goes downhill. You can see it in the fact that every single one of these social ills is intimately connected to commerce.

There is no shortage of books to consult on the matter. This hollowing out has been explored in works as varied as Sherry Turkle’s Alone Together, Barbara Ehrenreich’s Nickel and Dimed, JD Vance’s Hillbilly Elegy, Robert Putnam’s Bowling Alone and Cory Doctorow’s forthcoming Enshittification.

But for the deep analysis, turn to the philosopher Alasdair MacIntyre’s After Virtue, published in 1981. MacIntyre articulated an utter disenchantment with three centuries of moral philosophy all the way back to the Enlightenment, and argued that it was hardly a surprise that modern society itself lost its way. He argued that clear thinking and virtuous action couldn’t be unmoored from a social context — it had to be embedded in a community with shared values, goals and practices. His fellow philosophers found the book impossible to ignore.

MacIntyre died in May at the age of 96, which prompted me to turn back to a piece of his writing (in the 1994 essay “A Partial Response To My Critics”) that has stuck with me for decades: the tale of two fishing crews.

One crew is “organised and understood as a purely technical and economic means to a productive end, whose aim is only or overridingly to satisfy as profitably as possible some market’s demand for fish”. The crew members are motivated to work hard, innovate and hone their skills, because that way lies profit. The other crew has developed “an understanding of and devotion to excellence in fishing and to excellence in playing one’s part as a member of such a crew”. This excellence is about skill, to be sure — but also about character, social bonds and courage. These fishermen are risking their lives and are dependent on each other. And, adds MacIntyre, “when someone dies at sea, fellow crew members, their families and the rest of the fishing community will share a common affliction and common responsibilities”.

The values of this second crew are what we seem to be losing when a private equity group “rolls up” hundreds of small independent vets; or when an old-fashioned private partnership such as Lehman Brothers becomes a publicly traded company; or when a business embraces a mission statement that could equally describe the aim of any other business.

Try this: “Our objective is to maximise value for our shareholders by focusing on businesses where we have market leadership, a technological edge and a world competitive cost base”. Any guess as to the industry? It could be anything, so it means nothing.

I was introduced to MacIntyre’s ideas not by my philosophy tutors, but by the economist John Kay. In The Truth About Markets (2003), Kay quotes MacIntyre’s description of the fishing crews, and then asks a question: which crew would make more money?

MacIntyre assumed the answer was depressingly self-evident: the profit-maximising crew will be an unstoppable force, which is why modern commerce is so corrosive. Organisations that offer the riches of friendship, community, loyalty, craft and professionalism are sure to be driven out of business by the relentless economic logic of the profit-maximiser. They make money, and destroy what really matters.

But do they really make money? Kay argues that narrow profit-maximising is often a failure, even by its own denuded standards.

A 1972 Harvard Business School case study examines a real-world example of MacIntyre’s profit-maximising fishing crew. The Prelude Corporation, the largest lobster producer in North America, aimed to become the General Motors of the fishing industry. It went bankrupt shortly after the case study was written.

Lehman Brothers is another example — was it really more successful after jettisoning the traditional structure in which the capital at risk was provided by partners who best understood the business?

A third example is the chemical giant ICI, which in 1994 published that vacuous mission statement about “market leadership”. A titan of 20th-century British manufacturing, it faded and, in 2008, was absorbed and broken up by a Dutch paint company. Perhaps ICI would have done better had they paid less attention to making money, and more attention to making chemicals.

This should not really surprise us, as Kay explains in The Corporation in the 21st Century (2024). To be solidly profitable, companies need some kind of competitive advantage. That might rest on network effects, intellectual property or even political connections. But it might equally rest on a trusted brand and well-worn habits of making the right kind of decision, quickly. In other words, profitability can rest on shared values, goals and practices too. An organisation that MacIntyre himself might admire, one that has developed the right kind of culture, may well be more attractive to customers, more appealing to potential employees and simply more effective at doing all the things a particular business in a particular industry must do.

Consider the Financial Times itself. I dare say everyone involved in the business prefers to be paid, and the FT aims to be profitable. Yet we didn’t come here with the hope of printing money; we came with the aim of printing newspapers. If the FT’s entire operation, day to day and top to bottom, was predicated on maximising profit, this would be a different newspaper. It is not obvious that it would be a more profitable one.

Written for and first published in the Financial Times on 6 June 2025.

Loyal readers might enjoy How To Make The World Add Up.

“Nobody makes the statistics of everyday life more fascinating and enjoyable than Tim Harford.”- Bill Bryson

“This entertaining, engrossing book about the power of numbers, logic and genuine curiosity”- Maria Konnikova

I’ve set up a storefront on Bookshop in the United States and the United Kingdom. Links to Bookshop and Amazon may generate referral fees.

alierak: (Default)
alierak ([personal profile] alierak) wrote in [site community profile] dw_maintenance2025-06-30 03:18 pm

Rebuilding journal search again

We're having to rebuild the search server again (previously, previously). It will take a few days to reindex all the content.

Meanwhile search services should be running, but probably returning no results or incomplete results for most queries.