Uh oh

July 22nd, 2017 04:53 pm[personal profile] inkstone posting in [community profile] pokestop
inkstone: The Gotcha screen from Pokemon Go (PokeGo)
PokeGo Fest is running into some problems.

I know some of our members are from Chicago. Hopefully, you weren't one of these people! :/

(I feel like these were predictable issues? Oh Niantic.)

Posted by Tim Harford

Undercover Economist

If we were living in a movie, the ash-blackened cage looming over West London would be a metaphor for something. Instead, the Grenfell Tower disaster — so catastrophic that we are told we may never know how many people died — is a distinctly un-metaphorical national disgrace.

The least we can do now is learn the lessons of the fire, as we did not after the Lakanal House fire of 2009, which killed six people. Some of those lessons should emerge from the public inquiry. Grenfell Tower was built in 1974 but had recently been renovated. In a sane world such a renovation should have improved safety standards. Apparently we do not live in such a world.

But beyond the life-and-death details of fire safety rules and enforcement, a bigger picture has long been apparent: the British housing system, particularly in London, is in a shocking state. Decades of policy failure have left us with unaffordable housing. That is why the residents of unsafe housing feel trapped and voiceless, unable to afford to move, and powerless to demand change.

A better politician than Theresa May might have used this tragedy to justify housing reform, announcing a bold plan to build a million new quality homes before 2020. That target is less ambitious than it sounds, merely making up many years of undersupply. Having many more decent homes on the market would lower rents and make other housing policy goals — choice, fairness, quality, safety — easier to achieve. But perhaps that expecting too much of Mrs May. Stronger prime ministers in luckier circumstances have failed to make headway on housing.

What of Jeremy Corbyn, the man who is keen to remind us that he’d be quite willing to run the country? The Labour leader certainly made a better job of appearing prime ministerial after the fire, showing concern where Mrs May seemed distant. But this — the performance part of the job — is not what matters most. Boris Johnson could also have played the necessary role to perfection, but that would hardly qualify him to lead the country.

What we really need from our politicians is a willingness to advocate and execute wise policies. Mr Corbyn, instead, focused on grabbing and redistributing property. “There are a large number of deliberately kept vacant flats and properties all over London,” he told ITV journalist Robert Peston, arguing that these properties should be used to house the victims of the fire. When pressed for detail he added, “Occupy, compulsory purchase it, requisition it, there’s a lot of things you can do.”

This is a telling statement — even leaving aside the use of the word “occupy”, which seems to wink at the idea of breaking into other people’s homes. Since Mr Corbyn’s remarks are often uncharitably interpreted by the British press, let us assume that was not his goal.

Still, there is little ambiguity in the word “requisition”. This reflects a consistent theme in Mr Corbyn’s thinking: that the British public can best be served by forcing others — including international corporations and foreign property investors — to bear most of the cost.

It’s not hard to see why this seems appealing. It taps into the same ideals exploited by Donald Trump and the Leave campaign: that there’s money being left on the table, that foreigners are rigging the game against us. Time to give the “Gnomes of Zurich” a poke in the eye.

Such xenophobia-tinged ideas have taken nations to very dark places in the past, but today it is more likely that they will simply lead to inept policies and bad outcomes. Seizing foreign-owned property in London — even proposing seizure — will reduce the tax base and do yet more harm to the reputation of the UK as a grown-up country. (Perhaps that ship has sailed.)

Rich and apparently wasteful foreigners are an easy scapegoat for the problem of high prices and high rents in London. But they have become a target based on anecdotes. What limited data we have — it is admittedly patchy — suggests that the idea of widespread “buy to leave” is a myth. Wealthy foreign investors did not become so by squandering rental income.

We should be taxing all property, with expensive properties taxed at higher rates, occupied or not, foreign-owned or not. There is no need to be vindictive. And we should be building more. There is still scope in London — to say nothing of the leafy south-east — to build safe, pleasant apartments in high-rise and medium-rise blocks. There are costs of doing so, but the costs of not doing so are far greater.

As for the survivors of the Grenfell Tower fire, plans have been announced to offer them homes in a new local development. Good. Surely the British taxpayer is willing and able to do what is right, and pay from our own pockets to rehouse them swiftly and well. There is no need to requisition anything.

This disaster should provoke a rethink not just of rules on sprinkler systems, but the entire rotten edifice of British housing policy. I am not optimistic; I fear we’re getting the politics — and the politicians — we deserve. But the residents of Grenfell Tower deserved so much better.

 

Written for and first published in the Financial Times on 23 June 2017.

My new book is “Fifty Things That Made The Modern Economy“.

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Incoming Legendary raids confirmed!

July 20th, 2017 11:51 am[personal profile] kirin posting in [community profile] pokestop
kirin: Kirin Esper from Final Fantasy VI (Default)
Official announcement here: http://pokemongolive.com/en/post/legendarypokemon

Probably coming worldwide shortly after the Chicago GO fest, as I imagine them unlocking it is pretty much a foregone conclusion. Though it seems like Legendaries will be releasing gradually into the raid pool. I'l also heard scuttlebutt that Legendary raid eggs will have an extra-long lead time, to make it easier to coordinate a large group, though I'm not sure where that info comes from.

Someone over on the Silph reddit also did a pretty nice write-up on which pokemon that you can raise now will be most useful for Gen 1-2 Legendary raids: https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/6ogm5u/last_minute_preparation_for_legendary_raids/



For me, right now I've got one Bite/Crunch Tyranitar and one Rock Throw/Rock Blast Golem, plus the usual complement of Eeveelutions and one each excellent Scizor w/Bug, Houndoom w/Dark and Dragonite w/Dragon, so that's a start at least. Sadly neither of my Omastars have the useful legacy rock moveset, oh well.

Posted by Tim Harford

Marginalia

I’ve been thinking a lot, recently, about getting things done, and at the top of my list is Cal Newport’s remarkable book Deep Work. (US) (UK) Newport makes a persuasive case that our success in the world of work is often dependent on the amount of time we can devote to serious, deep thinking. This isn’t true for every job, of course, but it’s true for many. (Management is an obvious exception, an example of a knowledge-economy job that requires decisiveness and judgement rather than depth.)

One thing I appreciated about Newport’s book is that while he’s uncompromising in his belief that deep work is essential both for productivity and for happiness, he’s quite flexible in his understanding of how it’s to be achieved, and gives a variety of examples from Walter Isaacson, who seemed to be able to snatch focused time in twenty-minute chunks, to coder-hermits who shun email and deal with most mail in quarterly.

Another powerful observation – one that hit home for me – is that for many of us, the productivity-sink isn’t watching YouTube videos or gossiping on Snapchat. It’s ostensibly-serious stuff like emails and meetings. Email, in particular, is a severe temptation for me – I find it easy and it feels and looks like work. Swift, decisive email etiquette feels very professional – but all too often it’s just an excuse for avoiding the real work.

Deep Work is a brilliant book and I unreservedly recommend it.

 

For a playful take on related themes, I turned to Robert Twigger’s wonderful little book Micromastery. (US) (UK) Twigger – among other things an explorer, prize-winning poet, and Aikido master – makes the case for mastering many deep-but-narrow skills. Learn how to do an Eskimo roll, or a racing turn, or how to draw a smooth circle by hand. Don’t aim to become a brilliant cook; start instead by mastering the omelette. Twigger offers a cornucopia of little tricks – the kind of thing that you might find in a “how to amaze your friends and win bar bets” book – but far more interesting and compelling is his idea of micromastery, which he sees as empowering (because you remember how to learn and discover), as a source of creativity (because you acquire an ever-larger range of insights) and as a step towards broader mastery (because learning one narrow skill well is a fun, motivating way to begin in a new field). A really fun book – and a wise idea explained well.

Micromastery also bridges an apparent conflict between Deep Work and my own book Messy, which sings the praises of switching from one project to another. Twigger argues that if you want to go deep you need variety: master something narrow, but when you feel yourself getting jaded, switch to something else. Day by day you are focused, but month by month or year by year, your experiences and skills are varied.

 

I could hardly finish this without a shout-out for David Allen’s Getting Things Done. (US) (UK) (Not to be confused with Ed Bliss’s classic of the same name (US) (UK) – a great book too, if somewhat dated.) Allen’s book is inelegantly-written and has always felt wordy – but it’s been a huge success because it works. The central ideas of GTD are: take vague incoming issues (a phone message, an email, a meeting, an idea that pops into your head) and turn then into some specific next action, then write the next action down somewhere where you’re confident you’ll see it when you need it. This stops your subconscious constantly churning over the issue.

That makes GTD sound simple and in many ways it is. But in the messy reality of modern work it’s often easier to appreciate the principle than to make it work in practice. I don’t follow every piece of David Allen’s advice but I follow a lot, because it’s smart, practical and useful stuff.

My new book is “Fifty Things That Made The Modern Economy” – out last week in the UK and coming soon in the US. Grab yourself a copy in the US (slightly different title) or in the UK or through your local bookshop.

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New update rolling out

July 19th, 2017 07:35 am[personal profile] inkstone posting in [community profile] pokestop
inkstone: The Gotcha screen from Pokemon Go (PokeGo)
Good morning trainers!

A new update for PokeGo is rolling out to the app stores. Check out the list of changes.

Posted by Tim Harford

Undercover Economist

Shortly after the hilarious UK election, I had the opportunity to ask a Conservative politician (retired, centrist) what he made of the result. “Good news for a soft Brexit,” was one of his conclusions. That was my impression, too. Since both of us were Remainers, it was a comforting thought.

And then I reflected for a moment. Back when Theresa May was expected to secure a stonking majority, wasn’t that also supposed to be good news for a soft Brexit? I reflected on how I’d felt when Mrs May called the election. My dismay at the political choices on offer was offset a little by the hope that, with a clear victory, Mrs May would be unafraid of the extremist Eurosceptics.

I was forced to admit that I could take almost any scenario and produce a soothing interpretation of it. Wishful thinking is a powerful thing, and common. Recently the data journalist Nate Silver wrote that “Donald Trump is making Europe liberal again” and explored the possibility that Mr Trump’s toxic reputation in Europe was helping to suppress the far-right from Austria’s Freedom party and France’s Front National to Britain’s UK Independence party. Mr Silver made a good case, but I couldn’t help feeling that it was widely shared among my European liberal friends because it’s exactly what they wanted to believe.

A more scientific illustration of the same tendency in US politics comes courtesy of the psychologists Ben Tappin, Leslie van der Leer and Ryan McKay. The researchers wanted to tease apart two psychological tendencies that are often conflated: confirmation bias and desirability bias. Desirability bias is wishful thinking: we see what we want to see. Confirmation bias is our tendency to see what we expect to see (now that I’m aware of confirmation bias, I see it everywhere).

A month before the US presidential election, Mr Tappin and his colleagues recruited US-based experimental participants in four categories: Hillary Clinton supporters who expected her to win, Trump supporters who expected him to win, and supporters of each candidate who expected to be disappointed. Then the researchers showed their participants fresh opinion poll data that suggested either that Mrs Clinton was likely to win, or that Mr Trump was.

The research suggested that people seized not upon what they expected to see, but what they hoped to see instead. They tended to focus on encouraging evidence, whether or not it was surprising. They ignored unwelcome evidence. Desirability bias was stronger than confirmation bias.

There is a place in the world for wishful thinking — for example, in business. Without the sunny overconfidence of entrepreneurs few good ideas would ever get off the ground, because the chances of failure are so high.

Even the successes tend to generate more benefits for customers than shareholders. One study, by the great economist Bill Nordhaus, concluded that US companies retained less than 4 per cent of the social value of their innovation. The other 96 per cent went to customers. Given their inability to profit even when things go well, rational entrepreneurs would never quit their day jobs. Business innovation is built on the back of giddy optimism.

Wishful thinking even has its role in politics. The quest for marriage equality, for civil rights, for votes for women and for the abolition of slavery were all once distant dreams. Emmanuel Macron has surfed to success on a wave of optimism that an untested centrist can fix what ails France; I hope he succeeds, but hope alone will not be enough.

In many cases wishful thinking in politics is a recipe for foolishness. Much of Mr Trump’s appeal lay in the idea that the people who said policy was complicated were lying. Solutions were simple if you were strong and smart. It turns out that wishful thinking does not solve problems, but creates them.

Wishful thinking infects the political left, too. Many diehard Democrats seem bewildered that Republicans have had five full months to impeach their own man and still haven’t done it. In the UK, Jeremy Corbyn and his fan base have been enthused by his better than expected performance but seem not to have noticed that he lost the election.

Last year’s Brexit campaign was based on a simple piece of wishful thinking: Boris Johnson’s idea that the UK could have its cake and eat it. How, exactly, was never quite clear, but desirability bias gave a foolish idea more credibility than it deserved. Voters hoped that Mr Johnson was right, and so they began to believe him: it is so much easier to believe what we already wish is true.

That glib optimism stood in stark contrast to what experienced technocrats were saying behind the scenes. They warned that the UK simply didn’t have the time, the people or the expertise we needed to handle the process of leaving and then forging new trade agreements.

Mr Johnson told us that things were easy; the mandarins cautioned that they were difficult. I have my suspicions as to who will be proved correct, but we already know which proposition resonated with the voters. We need to be careful what we wish for.

Written for and first published in the Financial Times on 16 June 2017.

My new book is “Fifty Things That Made The Modern Economy” – out last week in the UK and coming soon in the US. Grab yourself a copy in the US (slightly different title) or in the UK or through your local bookshop.

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Egg Change

July 11th, 2017 02:42 pm[personal profile] upanddisappear posting in [community profile] pokestop
upanddisappear: (Default)
Eggs have changed again – multiple species added (includes Gen II starters)!

Generation II Egg Chart

I'm quite pleased. So happy that Mantines and Pinecos are in 5 km eggs now. It was awfully frustrating to walk a 10 km egg and get a freakin' Mantine. Also really glad Swinubs are in 5 kms and Chinchous in 10 kms. I got my first Chinchou today! And I need Swinubs for ice medals and candy for the eventual Mamoswine evolution.

I'm at level 28 now!

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July 11th, 2017 05:02 pm[personal profile] synecdochic
synecdochic: torso of a man wearing jeans, hands bound with belt (Default)
holy shit

Last night I was like, nah, you're seeing things, wishful thinking, etc, but after treatment #2? The cords really ARE shrinking, dramatically so.

"Stops progressing" would have been a good outcome. Actual reversal happens in a minority of cases, almost always in patients who treat it very early. I'm SO FUCKING GLAD I insisted on going as aggressive as possible. Even if I wind up with more chronic pain out of it, I'll keep use of my hands for a fuck of a lot longer, thank ANYTHING THAT WAS LISTENING

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July 11th, 2017 01:25 am[personal profile] synecdochic
synecdochic: torso of a man wearing jeans, hands bound with belt (Default)
First dose of radiation done, out of five (once per day this week). Aside from 20 minutes of "shitting cockgoblin fuckmuppet" pain levels just now, which did die down to just a slightly elevated from normal "ow ow ow ow ow", it was fairly uneventful! Holding the position required for the treatment is worse than the actual treatment, which is basically "the machine goes click whirr for 45 seconds".

So curious to see what happens in six weeks. The way this works, you see, is by activating all the dormant spots so the second round can nuke them in 12 weeks...

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Emptied of expectation. Relax.

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